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Fixed-line telecoms services are facing a bleak 2009 and beyond, according to a new report Western European fixed telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2008–2014 published by Analysys Mason.
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In November 2008, compared with October 2008, the volume of retail trade grew by 0.6% in the euro area (EA15) and by 0.3% in the EU27. In October retail trade fell by 1.0% and 0.5% respectively. In November 2008, compared with November 2007, the retail sales index decreased by 1.5% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27.
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In December, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined considerably in the EU and the euro area, continuing the sharp fall in sentiment already observed in the October and November surveys. It fell by 7.0 points in the EU and by 7.8 points in the euro area, to 63.5 and 67.1 respectively. This puts the ESI for both the EU and the euro area at its lowest since the current series was launched in January 1985.
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Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the outlook for the European consumer and retail sectors is not uniformly negative, notwithstanding a pronounced consumer downturn in 2008 which will likely last through 2009.
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GDP declined by 0.2% in both the euro area (EA15) and the EU27 during the third quarter of 2008, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the second quarter of 2008, growth rates were -0.2% in the euro area and 0.0% in the EU27.
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The euro area (EA15) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8% in November 2008, compared with 7.7% in October. It was 7.2% in November 2007. The EU27 unemployment rate was 7.2% in November 2008, compared with 7.1% in October. It was 6.9% in November 2007.
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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to reduce the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5%.
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Fitch Ratings said that there is a trend towards much larger European securitisation transaction sizes as European banks continue to access European Central Bank and Bank of England repo funding. Fitch estimates that the average European structured finance transaction size in 2008 (excluding CDOs) was EUR2.6 billion in 2008, compared to EUR 1.7 billion in 2007, an increase of some 52%.
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In November 2008 compared with October 2008, the industrial producer price index fell by 1.9% in the euro area (EA15) and by 2.1% in the EU27. In October, prices decreased by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively.
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The VocaLink take home pay index has fallen dramatically in December to just 2.9%, the weakest increase since January 2008. Overall the average wage growth in 2008 rose by just 3.7% and for the second consecutive year the increase in retail prices has exceeded growth of take home pay. Prior to this inflation had not exceeded wage growth since 1995. The result of this trend is that the spending power of take home pay has fallen by over 1.0% on average over the last two years, forcing individuals to borrow or dip into savings in order to maintain their standard of living.
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