The coincident index increased again in September, supported by positive contributions from employment, retail sales and real household disposable income. Industrial production has been the only source of weakness in this index in recent months. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index has held steady at 0.8 percent (a 1.5 percent annual rate) for the past three months, and the strengths among the coincident indicators continue to be very widespread.
The leading index has declined modestly in recent months, while the coincident index has continued to increase at a moderate pace. In addition, the strengths among the components of both composite indexes continue to be more widespread than the weaknesses. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, matching the expansion rate that prevailed in the previous three quarters. The current behavior of the leading and coincident indexes suggests that economic growth will likely continue in the near term, albeit at a slow pace.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were productivity for the whole economy, stock prices, operating surplus of corporations, and consumer confidence. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - were volume of expected output, yield spread, and order book volume. With the 0.1 percent decrease in September, the leading index now stands at 129.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in August and declined 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index increased 0.6 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were employment , retail sales, and real household disposable income. Industrial production declined.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 118.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and remained unchanged in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with all of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
