The coincident index also increased again in January. The strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread in recent months and the largest positive contributor continued to be final household consumption*. In recent months, this index of current economic activity has grown steadily at about a 4.5 percent annual rate, slightly above its growth rate in 2005 and early 2006.
The six-month growth rate of the leading index is now slightly above the 4.0 — 5.0 percent annual growth rate in the first half of 2006 after picking up sharply through the end of the fourth quarter (to about a 7.0 to 7.5 percent annual rate). At the same time, real GDP growth increased to a 4.1 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2006 (including a 4.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter), slightly above the 3.9 percent average rate in the first half of the year. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. The inverted long-term government bond yield declined in January.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in January, the leading index now stands at 151.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in December and increased 0.7 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 3.0 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, retail sales survey, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 159.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.4 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 2.2 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
