The coincident index increased in December, with final household consumption and employment making the largest positive contributions to the index. Since June, the coincident index has grown by only 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), down substantially from the 3.1 percent annual rate which prevailed between December 2006 and June 2007. Still, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread.
The leading index has increased at a slower pace since March of 2007 after growing rapidly throughout 2005 and 2006. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed in the second and third quarters of 2007 to a 3.3 percent average annual growth rate (including a 2.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter), down from a 4.3 percent average annual rate for the previous two quarters. The behavior of the leading and coincident indexes suggests that slow to moderate economic growth should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield and job placings.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in December, the leading index now stands at 158.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.5 percent, and all of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption, employment, and real imports. The retail sales survey and industrial production excluding construction declined in December.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in December, the coincident index now stands at 158.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 0.5 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
