The Conference Board CEI for France increased in May, after remaining unchanged in April. All four components of the coincident economic index contributed positively to the index this month, with industrial production making the largest positive contribution. Between November 2009 and May 2010, the index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), an improvement from no growth between May and November 2009. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2010, slowing from an increase of 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The Conference Board LEI for France has risen sharply for more than a year now, and its six-month growth rate remains just slightly below its recent high reached in October 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, has increased slightly this year, after remaining largely flat in the second half of 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the improvement in economic activity should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the yield spread, industrial new orders, building permits (residential), and production expectations. The negative contributors to the index - beginning with the largest negative contributor - are the stock price index, the inverted new unemployment claims, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in May, the leading economic index now stands at 109.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in April and increased 1.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 3.5 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components of the coincident economic index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest - were industrial production, personal consumption, wage and salaries, and employment.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, the coincident economic index now stands at 103.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
