The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in September, after remaining unchanged in August. Between March and September 2010, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent (a 1.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 0.2 percent (a -0.4 percent annual rate) between September 2009 and March 2010. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, following an increase of 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has fallen rapidly and the weaknesses among its components have become more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has been increasing for more than half a year now, but its six-month growth rate has slowed slightly. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggest that economic activity should continue to expand, but at a more modest pace in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in September. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, stock prices, order book volume, and productivity for the whole economy. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence, volume of expected output, and total gross operating surplus of corporations.
With the 0.3 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading economic index increased 1.9 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in September. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, industrial production, and real household disposable income. Retail sales declined in September.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
