The Conference Board CEI for the UK, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in October after a revised no change in September., The six-month change in the coincident economic index stands at 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) in the period through October 2010, up from -0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, following an increase of 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has continued to slow in recent months. Despite this slowdown, the index is 0.3 percent above its most recent peak in June 2007. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has been generally on an upward trend since February 2010, though it is still well below its most recent peak in May 2008. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand, but at a more moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Six of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in October. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, the volume of expected output, total gross operating surplus of corporations, stock prices, productivity for the whole economy, and consumer confidence. Order book volume made a negative contribution in October.
With the 0.4 percent increase in October, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 105.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in September and increased 0.5 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading economic index increased 2.8 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in October. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, retail sales, and real household disposable income. Industrial production declined in October.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
