The Conference Board CEI for the UK, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in November, following no change in the previous month. All components advanced in November, except for employment which held steady. During the last six months, the coincident economic index rose by 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate), higher than the increase of 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) between November 2009 and May 2010. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components increasing over the past six months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following an increase of 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the UK remained unchanged in November, after increasing for more than a year and a half. At the same time, its six-month growth rate has been moderating over the past year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the UK, which had risen sharply from February to August 2010, has been essentially flat lately. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand, but at a more moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in November. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, total gross operating surplus of corporations, productivity for the whole economy, and stock prices. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence, volume of expected output, and order book volume.
After remaining unchanged in November, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading economic index increased 2.4 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in November. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were real household disposable income, industrial production, and retail sales. Employment remained unchanged in November.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
