The Conference Board CEI for the UK, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in March, following no change in February. In the six-month period ending March 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (a 0.8 percent annual rate), slowing from 0.7 percent (a 1.4 percent annual rate) between March and September 2010. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following a decline of 2.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for the UK has been on a rising trend since the second quarter of 2009. Its six-month growth rate has picked up somewhat in recent months, after falling sharply in 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the UK increased slightly in the first quarter, after remaining largely flat late last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely expand at a modest pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in March. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, volume of expected output, order book volume, and productivity for the whole economy. The negative contributors – from the larger negative contributor – were consumer confidence and stock prices. Total gross operating surplus of corporations remained unchanged in March.
With the 0.4 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in February and increased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading economic index increased 1.9 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in March. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, real household disposable income, industrial production, and retail sales.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in February and increased 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
