The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was flat in July following a 0.1 percent gain in June and a 0.1 percent decline in May. Between January and July 2011, the coincident economic index declined 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), following growth of 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in July, its sixth increase in seven months. The six-month change in the LEI has picked up somewhat in 2011, though it is still well below its most recent peak in October 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. was flat in July, and the index’s six-month growth rate became slightly negative for the first time since February amid widespread weaknesses among its components. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely continue expanding, albeit at a moderate pace, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in July. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, consumer confidence, stock prices, productivity for the whole economy, and order book volume. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the volume of expected output and total gross operating surplus of corporations.
With the 0.3 percent increase in July, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 104.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in June and increased 0.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 2.0 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in July. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, real household disposable income, and retail sales. Industrial production declined in July.
After remaining unchanged in July, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in June and decreased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index decreased 0.1 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
