The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in April. Between October 2010 and April 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.8 percent annual rate), following growth of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread recently. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2011, after declining at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in April, remaining on a rising trend which began in the second quarter of 2009. In addition, its six-month growth rate has picked up somewhat this year, after falling sharply in 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has remained largely flat this year, after increasing slightly in previous months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely expand, albeit at a modest pace, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, order book volume, stock prices, volume of expected output, and productivity for the whole economy. Consumer confidence declined while total gross operating surplus of corporations remained unchanged in April.
With the 0.4 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in March and increased 0.5 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading economic index increased 2.0 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in April. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were retail sales, employment, and real household disposable income. Industrial production declined in April.
After remaining unchanged in April, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and decreased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
