The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased in March for a second consecutive month. Between September 2009 and March 2010, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), after remaining unchanged during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 0.8 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2010, after growing at a 2.0 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009.
After a long period of decline, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has risen for a year now, though the pace of its six-month increase has declined modestly since October 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has increased during the past two months, after having been on a flat to slightly declining path since the middle of last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the improvement in economic conditions should continue in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
All seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in March. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were the yield spread, stock prices, volume of expected output, consumer confidence, order book volume, productivity for the whole economy and total gross operating surplus of corporations.
With the 1.0 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 101.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in February and increased 0.8 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading economic index increased 5.3 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in March. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were industrial production, retail sales, real household disposable income and employment.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in February and decreased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the coincident economic index decreased 0.2 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
