The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged for a second consecutive month in January. Between July 2009 and January 2010, the coincident economic index increased by 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate), after falling by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in recent months. At the same time, real GDP grew at an upwardly revised 1.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009, its first increase since the first quarter of 2008.
After a long period of decline, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has risen sharply during the past ten months. However, the pace of its six-month increase has slowed slightly from October 2009 when it reached its highest rate since 1978. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. rose slightly between May and September 2009, though it has been generally flat since then. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic conditions will continue to improve in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
Six of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in January. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were the yield spread, order book volume, consumer confidence, stock prices, total gross operating surplus of corporations and productivity for the whole economy. Volume of expected output remained unchanged in January.
With the 0.8 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 100.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in December and increased 1.0 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading economic index increased 5.7 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in January. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were real household disposable income and employment. Retail sales and industrial production declined in January.
After remaining unchanged in January, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in December and increased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident economic index increased 0.1 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 37.5 percent).
