The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased in February following three consecutive declines. The index was revised downwards between September 2009 and January 2010 after new data for real household disposable income and employment became available. Between August 2009 and February 2010, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate). Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. However, real GDP growth was revised up to a 2.0 percent annual rate for the fourth quarter of 2009. The increase in real GDP was the first since the beginning of 2008.
After a long period of decline, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has risen sharply for almost a year. However, the pace of its six-month increase has gradually moderated. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has fallen slightly since October 2009 after rising modestly between May and September 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic conditions will improve in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
Six of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in February. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were the yield spread, consumer confidence, order book volume, productivity for the whole economy, volume of expected output and total gross operating surplus of corporations. Stock prices were the only negative contributor in February.
With the 0.6 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 100.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in January and increased 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the leading economic index increased 5.3 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in February. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were retail sales, industrial production, real household disposable income and employment.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in January and decreased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the coincident economic index decreased 0.2 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
