The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in April, following two consecutive increases. Between October 2009 and April 2010, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), after increasing by 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a (revised) 1.2 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2010, after growing at a 2.0 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising for more than a year now, though the pace of its six-month growth rate has continued to moderate. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has risen slightly over the last three months, after having been on a flat to slightly declining path since the middle of 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the improvement in economic conditions should continue in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in April. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, volume of expected output, stock prices, order book volume and productivity for the whole economy. Consumer confidence was the only negative contributor in April, while total gross operating surplus of corporations remained unchanged.
With the 0.6 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.1 percent in March and increased 0.6 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading economic index increased 4.5 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in April. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, real household disposable income and retail sales. Industrial production declined in April.
After remaining unchanged in April, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in March and increased 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the coincident economic index decreased 0.1 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
