The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.9 percent in February to 108.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in January and a 0.8 percent increase in December.

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area increased sharply in February, and index levels were revised slightly upwards in recent months as a result of data revisions to the underlying components. During the six-month period ending February 2011, the leading economic index increased 2.8 percent (a 5.7 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 3.9 percent (an 8.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in February, according to preliminary estimates. Index levels were revised modestly upwards in recent months, as a result of newly released fourth quarter data for employment and data revisions to the other components. Between August 2010 and February 2011, the coincident economic index advanced 0.5 percent (a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly below the growth of 0.7 percent (a 1.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010, following an increase of 1.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area remains on an upward trend, which began in April 2009. Its six-month growth rate has picked up from a recent low in October 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has also been generally rising since reaching a trough in October 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic expansion should continue, and growth could even pick up somewhat in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS

Seven of the eight components in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area increased in February. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the interest rate spread, the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (manufacturing), the Economic Sentiment Index, EURO STOXX® Index, the Markit business expectations index (services), new orders of capital goods, and real money supply. Residential building permits declined in February.

With the 0.9 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area now stands at 108.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in January and increased 0.8 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.8 percent, with six of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

One of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area increased in February. The positive contributor was employment. Manufacturing turnover and retail trade declined, while industrial production remained unchanged in February.

After remaining unchanged in February, The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area now stands at 103.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and remained unchanged in December. During the six-month period through February, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).