The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.4 percent in April to 109.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in March and a 0.7 percent increase in February.

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area increased in April after declining in March. The interest rate spread continued to make a large positive contribution to the index this month, though the strengths and weaknesses among the components remained balanced. During the six-month period ending April 2011, the leading economic index increased 3.3 percent (a 6.7 percent annual rate), faster than the growth of 1.4 percent (a 2.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in April, according to preliminary estimates. Between October 2010 and April 2011, the coincident economic index advanced 0.4 percent (a 0.8 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the growth of 0.6 percent (a 1.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following an increase of 1.1 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area increased in April, its fifth increase during the past six months. The index is now 0.4 percent above its most recent peak at June 2007. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has been gradually rising since reaching a trough in October 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Four of the eight components in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area increased in April. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the interest rate spread, the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (manufacturing), the EURO STOXX® Index, and new orders of capital goods. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Economic Sentiment Index, the Markit business expectations index (services), real money supply, and residential building permits.

With the 0.4 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area now stands at 109.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in March and increased 0.7 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 3.3 percent, with seven of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area increased in April. The positive contributors were retail trade, manufacturing turnover, and employment. Industrial production remained unchanged in April.

With the 0.1 percent increase in April, The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area now stands at 103.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in March and increased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).