The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased in July after remaining flat in the previous two months. The index was revised upward between March and June after second quarter data for employment became available. Between January and July 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. However, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing 1.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain declined in July, its sharpest decline since November 2010. Additionally, its six-month growth rate is now the lowest since March 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased slightly in July. However, its six-month growth rate has remained relatively stable since March, fluctuating within a range of 0.2 to 0.4 percent. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that economic activity will remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
None of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in July. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the decrease of 0.9 percent in July, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 105.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in June and remained unchanged in May. During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 1.8 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in July. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are final household consumption and employment. Industrial production excluding construction declined while real imports and the retail sales survey remained unchanged in July.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and June. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.3 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).
