The Conference Board CEI for Spain remained unchanged in January, and index levels were revised upwards from August to December 2010, as fourth-quarter data for employment and household consumption became available. In the six-month period ending January 2011, the coincident economic index declined 0.4 percent (about a -0.8 percent annual rate), well below the growth of 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010, following a (revised) decline of 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased sharply in January. As a result, its six-month change has improved somewhat, though the index has been generally declining for more than a year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, has been essentially flat since the middle of 2009. It may be too soon to say that the downside risks to economic activity have diminished. However, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to improve somewhat in the near term, but will remain weak.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in January. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, job placings, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the order books survey. The inverted long-term government bond yield remained unchanged.
With the increase of 0.9 percent in January, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 107.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and declined 1.0 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index remained unchanged and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in January. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption, and real imports. The retail sales survey and employment declined in January.
After remaining unchanged in January, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 0.4 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).
