The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in August, after remaining unchanged in July. Index levels were revised slightly higher in recent months as final household consumption for the second quarter became available. Between February and August 2010, the coincident economic index increased 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate), stronger than the increase of 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2010, following an increase of 0.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain rose for the past two months, after generally declining since October 2009. With this month’s increase, its six-month growth rate became positive for the first time this year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been increasing slowly this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the weak recovery will continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and job placings. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish equity price index, and the order books survey.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in August, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and declined 0.4 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.2 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in August. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are final household consumption, real imports, and the retail sales survey. Industrial production excluding construction, and employment declined in August.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
