The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined for the seventh consecutive month in December as a result of continued weaknesses in employment and final consumption expenditures. Between June and December 2010, the coincident economic index declined 1.7 percent (about a -3.3 percent annual rate), well below the increase of 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate) in the first half of 2010. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all five components declining over the past six months. At the same time, real GDP edged up at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following growth of 1.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased slightly in December. However, the index has been generally declining for more than a year, although this downtrend has not been as sharp as the decline in 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has also been decreasing since June 2010, and its six-month growth rate is at its lowest since August 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, and job placings. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in December, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.0 percent in November and declined 0.4 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 0.6 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in December. The positive contributors are industrial production excluding construction and real imports. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are employment, final household consumption, and retail sales survey.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in December, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 100.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in November and decreased 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 1.7 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
