The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased in November, with all components advancing. Between May and November 2010, the coincident economic index increased by 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly below the growth of 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) between November 2009 and May 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components advancing in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following growth of 2.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for France has been on a general upward trend since April 2009, although it declined this month and its six-month growth rate has moderated lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France has increased slightly in 2010, though its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat as well. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to grow moderately in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, the stock price index, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. The negative contributors to the index — beginning with the largest negative contributor — are the inverted new unemployment claims, production expectations, building permits, and industrial new orders.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, the leading economic index now stands at 111.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.2 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were personal consumption, industrial production, wage and salaries, and employment.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.5 percent, and all four components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
