The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased for the tenth consecutive month in February as industrial production and employment* continued to make the largest negative contributions. Between August 2008 and February 2009, the coincident economic index fell 5.5 percent (about a -10.7 percent annual rate), well below the 2.5 percent decrease (about a -4.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators remained very widespread, with none of the components increasing during the last six months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 2.5 percent average annual rate during the third and fourth quarter of 2008 (including a decline of 3.8 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter), its lowest two-quarter growth rate since 1993.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain has been falling for a year now, amid widespread weakness among its components. The index has decreased by 5.6 percent since the first quarter of 2008, its largest drop since the decline between May 1991 and October 1992. The Conference Board CEI for Spain has also been on a downtrend since its most recent peak in February 2008. This decline has continued accelerating in recent months, with the six-month growth rate for the index now at the lowest level in its 25-year history. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the contraction in economic activity should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
One of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in February. The only positive contributor to the index was the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, order books survey, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and job placings.
With the decrease of 0.7 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.8 percent in January and declined 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 3.9 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
None of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in February. Industrial production excluding construction, employment, retail sales survey, final household consumption, and real imports declined in February.
With the decrease of 0.9 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 103.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.0 percent in January and decreased 0.9 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 5.5 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
