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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the Euro Area Continues to Recover in May 2009
added: 2009-06-29

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 1.9 percent in May to 95.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.6 percent increase in April and no change in March. All of the components made positive contributions to the index this month.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "With a second sharp rise in a row, the Euro Area LEI has moved out of recessionary territory. This improvement is reinforced by the recent first-time increases in the German, the French and the Spanish LEIs. The likelihood of reaching a trough in the current business cycle before the end of the year has clearly increased."

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area has increased by 3.9 percent in 2009 after falling more than 15.0 percent between June 2007 and December 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic IndexTM (CEI) for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, declined by 0.1 percent in May, falling to 101.6 (2004 = 100), according to preliminary estimates, after falling 0.4 percent in both April and March. The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has been trending downward since February 2008.

The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area aggregates eight economic indicators that measure activity in the Euro Area as a whole (rather than indicators of individual member countries), each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the Euro Area

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.


Source: The Conference Board

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