The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, decreased again in April. Industrial production (excluding construction) continued to make the largest negative contribution to the index. Between October 2008 and April 2009, the coincident economic index fell 4.8 percent (about a -9.5 percent annual rate), faster than the 3.8 percent decline (about a -7.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators remained very widespread, with none of the components increasing during the past six months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 7.4 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2009, its largest quarterly decline since 1991, following a decline of 3.8 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2008.
Although The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased slightly this month, it has been trending downward for more than a year amid widespread weakness among its components. However, the pace of contraction has moderated somewhat in recent months. The Conference Board CEI for Spain has also been on a downtrend since its most recent peak in February 2008, and its six-month growth rate remains near its 25-year low. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that, although the pace of contraction may moderate slightly, the downturn in economic activity is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in April. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the Spanish equity price index, order books survey, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the capital equipment component of industrial production and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Job placings remained unchanged.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 106.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in March and declined 0.7 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 2.6 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in April. The retail sales survey was the only positive contributor to the index this month. Industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption, and employment declined in April, while real imports remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.5 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 102.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.8 percent in March and decreased 0.8 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 4.8 percent, and none of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
