The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in October, with employment continuing to make the largest negative contribution. Between April and October 2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 1.7 percent (about a -3.3 percent annual rate), slower than the 4.9 percent decline (about a -9.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, following a decline of 4.1 percent annual rate during the second quarter.
After rising for four consecutive months, The Conference Board LEI for Spain fell slightly in October. As a result, its six-month growth rate also declined slightly, after reaching its highest level since 1997 in September. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since its most recent peak in February 2008, though the pace of this decline has slowed in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the pace of contraction will continue to ease and that economic activity may improve in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are order books survey, the capital equipment component of industrial production and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are job placings, the Spanish equity price index and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in September and increased 1.9 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 3.2 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in October. Real imports made the only positive contribution to the index. Employment, industrial production (excluding construction), retail sales survey and final household consumption declined in October.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 100.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 1.7 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).
