The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in September for the third time in the past five months as industrial production again made a large positive contribution. Between March and September 2009, the coincident economic index increased by 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), after declining by 3.6 percent (about a -7.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become balanced in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, after rising at a 1.8 percent annual rate during the second quarter.
After a long downtrend between July 2007 and March 2009, The Conference Board LEI for Germany has grown rapidly during the past two quarters. As a result, its six-month growth rate has reached its highest level since 1983. The Conference Board CEI for Germany has increased modestly since April, and its six-month growth rate became positive for the first time since July 2008. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that economic conditions will continue to improve in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in September. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are consumer confidence, the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, inventory change series and new residential construction orders. Gross enterprises and properties income made the only negative contribution.
With the 1.2 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 91.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.6 percent in August and increased 0.9 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 6.7 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in September. The positive contributors were industrial production and manufacturing sales. Employed persons and retail trade declined in September.
With the 0.2 percent increase in September, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 102.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in August and remained unchanged in July. During the six-month period through September, the index increased 0.3 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
*See notes under data availability
