The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined again in November, with employment* continuing to make the largest negative contribution. Between May and November 2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 1.0 percent (about a -2.0 percent annual rate), slower than the 5.2 percent decline (about a -10.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 1.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter, following a decline of 4.1 percent annual rate during the second quarter.
After rising for six consecutive months, The Conference Board LEI for Spain has fallen in both October and November. As a result, its six-month growth rate has slowed after reaching its highest level since 1994 in September. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since its most recent peak in February 2008, though the pace of this decline has slowed in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that even though the pace of contraction in the economy could continue to ease, economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in November. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are order books survey and the Spanish equity price index. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings and the inverted long-term government bond yield.
With the decrease of 0.5 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.6 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in November. Real imports made the only positive contribution to the index. Employment, retail sales survey, industrial production excluding construction and final household consumption declined in November.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.0 percent, and one of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
