The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased for the fifth consecutive month in May. Between December 2009 and June 2010, the coincident economic index increased by 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate), after remaining unchanged for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread, with all four components increasing during the past six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 4.6 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2010, after growing at a 1.2 percent annual rate during the first quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising for more than a year now, though its six-month growth rate has moderated and the weaknesses among its components have become more widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has been increasing since February, after having been on a flat to slightly declining path since the middle of 2009. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand, but at a more modest pace in the months ahead.
LEADING INDICATORS.
Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in June. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were order book volume, the yield spread, volume of expected output and productivity for the whole economy. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence and stock prices. Total gross operating surplus of corporations remained unchanged in June.
With the 0.5 percent increase in June, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading economic index increased 3.8 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in June. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, retail sales, and real household disposable income. Industrial production declined in June.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 103.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
