Then Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in May for a third consecutive month. Between November 2010 and May 2011, the coincident economic index remained unchanged, slower than the 0.5 percent increase (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) between May and November 2010. Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, after declining at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. continued to increase in May, remaining on a rising trend which began in the second quarter of 2009. In addition, its six-month growth rate has picked up this year, after falling sharply in 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. has remained largely flat this year, after increasing slightly in previous months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely expand, albeit at a moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS.
Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in May. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were consumer confidence, the yield spread, order book volume, and productivity for the whole economy. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were volume of expected output and stock prices. Total gross operating surplus of corporations remained unchanged in May.
With the 0.6 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 104.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading economic index increased 2.5 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in May. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were industrial production, employment, and real household disposable income. Retail sales declined in May.
After remaining unchanged in May, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and remained unchanged in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident economic index remained unchanged, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
