The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined in May. Retail sales made a large negative contribution this month while employment continued to weaken. Between November 2010 and May 2011, the coincident economic index declined 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), an improvement from the decrease of 0.9 percent (about a -1.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. However, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained balanced in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following growth of 0.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for Spain remained unchanged in May, following declines in March and April. The six-month growth rate became positive for the first time this year amid widespread strengths among the LEI components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain declined again in May; the index has been largely flat this year after dropping sharply in the middle of 2010. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will likely remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS.
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in May. The positive — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, order books survey, and the Spanish equity price index.
After remaining unchanged in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain stands at 107.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in April and declined 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.6 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in May. Final household consumption made the only positive contribution this month. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the retail sales survey and employment. Industrial production excluding construction and real imports remained unchanged in May.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 101.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 0.1 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
