With a subscriber growth rate of 22.3% from 2007 to 2010, Poland (and Turkey) will be the fastest growing wireless market in Europe over the forecast period. The wireless penetration level in Poland will increase from 113.8% in 2007 to 136.4% in 2010. This is consistent with our 4Q07 forecast.
PTC, Polkomtel and PTK Centertel will continue to have similar market shares in the range of 30% - 33% each over the next several years. They will also have similar monthly churn rates of approximately 2%. In 2010, the average EBITDA margin will be 34.4%, and the average ARPU will be US$ 21.40 per month in Poland. Our forecasting models are not showing any notable difference between the three operators concerning EBITDA margins and ARPU.
