According to first demographic estimates published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the EU27 will have a population of 499.7 million on 1 January 2009. The population of the new euro area, including Slovakia, will be 328.6 million on 1 January 2009.


In the EU27 the population grew by 4.4 per 1000 inhabitants in 2008, due to natural population growth of +1.1‰ and net migration of +3.3‰. In total, the EU27 population is estimated to have increased by 2.2 million in 2008.

Highest birth rates in Ireland, United Kingdom, France and Estonia

Live births in the EU27 are estimated to be 5.4 million in 2008, corresponding to a crude birth rate of 10.8 per 1000 inhabitants. The highest birth rates are estimated for Ireland (18.1‰), the United Kingdom (13.0‰), France (12.9‰), Estonia (12.2‰), Sweden (11.9‰) and Denmark (11.8‰). Germany (8.3‰), Malta and Austria (both 9.2‰), Bulgaria (9.4‰), Italy and Portugal (both 9.6‰) have the lowest rates.

There are estimated to have been 4.8 million deaths in the EU27 in 2008, corresponding to a crude death rate of 9.7 per 1000 inhabitants. The highest death rates in 2008 are estimated for Bulgaria (14.2‰), Latvia (14.0‰), Lithuania (13.2‰) and Hungary (13.0‰). Ireland (6.1‰) has the lowest rate, followed by Cyprus (6.6‰), Luxembourg (6.9‰) and Malta (7.7‰).

Consequently, the highest natural growth of the population is estimated for Ireland (+12.0 per 1000 inhabitants), well ahead of France (+4.5‰), Luxembourg (+4.3‰), Cyprus (+3.9‰) and the United Kingdom (+3.6‰). Eight Member States have a negative natural growth, with the largest falls in Bulgaria (-4.8‰), Latvia (-3.2‰), Hungary (-3.1‰), Lithuania (-2.6‰) and Germany (-2.0‰).

EU27 population growth in 2008: between -5.0‰ in Bulgaria and +26.1‰ in Ireland

In 2008, three quarters of the increase in the EU27 population is estimated to have come from migration. In relative terms, Ireland (+14.1 per 1000 inhabitants), Slovenia (+12.6‰), Luxembourg (+11.9‰), Cyprus (+11.7‰) and Spain (+10.2‰) have the largest net migratory flows, while Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have more emigration than immigration.

In conclusion, the population is expected to have increased in twenty Member States and decreased in seven, with considerable variations between Member States. The largest relative increases are estimated for Ireland (+26.1‰), Luxembourg (+16.2‰), Cyprus (+15.5‰), Slovenia (+13.5‰) and Spain (+12.5‰), and the largest decreases in Bulgaria (-5.0‰), Lithuania (-4.8‰) and Latvia (-4.3‰).