EU: July 113.3
Euro area: July 111.0
The decline of economic sentiment in the EU was mainly due to a decrease in confidence in the industry, services and construction sectors. Confidence in the retail trade sector and among consumers remained unchanged. In the euro area, sectoral developments were somewhat different: unlike in the EU, confidence improved in the retail trade sector, while it remained stable in the services sector.
At the individual country level, the picture is mixed, though a majority of countries reported decreases in sentiment. Among the large Member States, confidence improved in France (+0.7) and Poland (+0.6), while it decreased in Germany (-0.6), Spain (-0.9), Italy (-1.0) and the UK (-6.6).
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 5
Euro area: July 5
In July, the industrial confidence indicator decreased in both the EU and the euro area. Confidence remains, however, at very high levels in both areas.
In both the EU and the euro area, the decline in the confidence indicator resulted from a deterioration in its three components. Managers' production expectations and their views of order books decreased by one and two points respectively. Managers' assessment of their stocks of finished products also worsened by two points in the EU and one point in the euro area.
Among the large Member States, industrial confidence remained unchanged in Spain and France, while managers became slightly less optimistic in Germany (-1) and Poland (-1). In Italy (-3) and the UK (-9), the decrease in confidence was rather marked.
Service confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 20
Euro area: July 21
The services confidence indicator decreased by one point in the EU and remained unchanged in the euro area in July. However, at 20 and 21 points respectively, the indicator remains at a relatively high level in the current business cycle.
In the EU, the decline in the confidence indicator was due to a sharp worsening of managers' assessment of the current business situation and, to a lesser extent, of the recent evolution of demand, partly compensated for by an improved appraisal of the expected evolution of demand. Meanwhile, in the euro area the deterioration in managers' assessment of the current business situation was offset by an improvement in their views of the recent and expected evolution of demand.
Developments at the EU and euro-area levels mask a rather diverse pattern at the individual country level. Among the large Member States, services confidence improved in France (+2), Italy (+4) and Poland (+1), while it remained stable in Germany and declined in Spain (-1) and the UK (-4).
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July -2
Euro area: July -2
After a slight downward correction in June, consumer confidence remained unchanged at a very high level in both the EU and the euro area in July. In both areas, the indicator has been on a fairly steady steep upward path since mid-2005.
Consumers in the EU and the euro area were slightly less optimistic regarding the general economic situation over the next 12 months, while their expectations regarding both their own financial situation and saving opportunities over the next 12 months were unchanged. By contrast, their expectations regarding unemployment over the next 12 months improved by one point in the EU and by two points in the euro area.
The stability of consumer confidence at the aggregate level reflects generally stable developments in the large Member States. France saw consumer confidence edge down by one point, while in Italy and the UK it was unchanged, and in Germany (+1), Spain (+2) and Poland (+2) it increased.
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 5
Euro area: July 3
The retail confidence indicator remained stable at a very high level in the EU and improved by one point in the euro area in July.
The components of the retail confidence indicator showed quite diverse developments in the EU and the euro area. In the EU, retailers' appraisal of the present business situation was unchanged, while their assessment of the expected business situation turned slightly more positive. In the euro area, retailers' assessment of the present business situation improved by four points, whereas their views of the expected business situation remained stable. In both areas, retailers' assessment of the volume of stocks deteriorated by two points.
Among the large Member States, retail confidence declined in Spain (-6) and the UK (-3), while it remained unchanged in Poland and improved in Germany (+2), France (+3) and Italy (+1).
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 0
Euro area: July 0
In July, construction confidence declined marginally in the EU and the euro area, after having remained broadly stable in the first half of the year.
The decline in construction confidence was mainly due to a worsening of managers' assessments of order books, which decreased by two points in both areas. In addition, employment expectations worsened by one point in the EU, while they were stable in the euro area..
Developments at the individual country level were fairly mixed. Among the large Member States, construction confidence declined in Spain (-1), France (-2), Italy (-3) and the UK (-1), while construction managers became more optimistic in Germany (+2) and reported unchanged confidence in Poland.
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
EU: July 28
Euro area: July 27
In July, the financial services confidence indicator increased slightly in the EU, but dropped in the euro area. The indicator was rather erratic around a falling trend during the first half of 2007.
Looking at the indicator's components, the contribution to the increase in the EU came from managers' assessment regarding the business situation, which rose by two points. For the euro area, the decrease in the confidence indicator was due to a significant worsening in the assessments of both the past and expected evolution of demand.
These results are derived from the new EU survey in the financial services sector, recently launched by the European Commission to further increase the sectoral coverage of its survey programme. In line with the schedule of the other business surveys, the survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since April 2006. The objective is to achieve representative results for the EU and the euro area as a whole, rather than for individual Member States.
