EU: August 113.2
Euro area: August 110.0
The stabilisation in the sentiment indictor for the EU is the result of slightly improved confidence in both the services and retail trade sectors, while confidence among consumers worsened somewhat. No changes were registered in the industry and construction sectors. In the euro area, sectoral developments were somewhat different, with confidence declining slightly in the services and construction sector.
At the individual country level, the picture is mixed, though a majority of countries reported decreases in sentiment. Among the large Member States, confidence improved in Spain (+1.1) and in the UK (+4.9), while it decreased in Germany (-1.0), Italy (-3.2) and Poland (-4.1).
Note that, since no survey was conducted in any of the five constituent sectors, there are no French data available for August.
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: August 5
Euro area: August 5
In August, following a decrease in the previous month, the industrial confidence indicator remained stable in both the EU and the euro area. The indicator thus remains close to the record-high levels it reached a few months ago.
The unchanged indicator masks diverse development of the underlying components. In both the EU and the euro area, industry managers' assessment of order books became more optimistic, that of production expectations less optimistic and that of stocks of finished products unchanged.
Among the large Member States, industrial confidence was unchanged in Germany and Poland, while managers became more optimistic in Italy (+1) and in the UK (+3). The confidence indicator decreased slightly in Spain (-1).
Service confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: August 21
Euro area: August 20
The services confidence indicator increased by one point in the EU and decreased by the same amount in the euro area. Confidence among managers in the service sector remains above the long-term average.
In the EU, the increase in the confidence indicator was due to managers' improved assessment of the current business situation and, to a lesser extent, the recent evolution of demand. The increase was partly offset by a weakening of expected evolution of demand. In the euro area, on the other hand, managers' assessment of both the current business situation and the recent evolution of demand remained constant. The decrease of the indicator was due to a weakening of expected evolution of demand.
At the country level, the results in general were fairly positive. However, among the large Member States, services confidence worsened considerably in Italy (-12) and to a lesser extent also in Poland ( 3). The indicator increased in Germany (+1) and Spain (+3), and even more so in the UK (+11).
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: August -3
Euro area: August -3
In August, consumer confidence declined slightly in both the EU and the euro area. Despite this small downturn, confidence in both areas remains at a high level owing to the overall very postitive developments of the indicator over the last couple of years.
Consumers in the EU and the euro area were slightly less optimistic regarding the general economic situation over the next 12 months and their own financial situation over the next 12 months, while their view on savings over the next 12 months was unchanged. Furthermore, consumers' expectations regarding unemploy-ment over the next 12 months worsened somewhat in both areas.
The lower consumer confidence at the aggregate level reflects lower confidence in a majority of the Member States. Among the large Member States, confidence declined in all countries apart from the UK (+1). Hence, consumer confidence decreased in Germany (-3), Italy (-1), Spain (-1) and Poland (-3).
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: August 6
Euro area: August 4
The retail confidence indicator increased slightly in both the EU and the euro area in August.
In the EU and the euro area, the rise in overall confidence was due to a more positive assessment by retailers of both the present and expected business situation. Views concerning the volume of stocks worsened slightly among EU retailers, while they remained stable in the euro area.
Among the large Member States, retail confidence declined in Germany (-2), remained unchanged in Poland and improved in Italy (+7), Spain (+7) and the UK (+2).
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: August 0
Euro area: August -2
In August, construction confidence remained unchanged in the EU and declined in the euro area. The indicator has been trending downwards since reaching its peak in the autumn of last year, but is still at an historically high level.
An examination of the underlying components shows that construction managers in the EU, particularly in the euro area, held less optimistic views of their order books compared to July. By contrast, in both areas, they turned more optimistic regarding employment expectations.
Developments at the individual country level were mixed. Among the large Member States, construction confidence increased in Italy (+4) and the UK (+5), while managers became less optimistic in Spain (-9) and reported unchanged confidence in Germany and Poland.
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
EU: August 32
Euro area: August 33
In August, the financial services confidence indicator increased both in the EU and in the euro area. The indicator has been moving rather irregularly along a slightly negative trend during 2007, but has now picked up to a level above average.
A look at the indicator's components shows that the contributions to the increase in the EU were evenly distributed across all underlying components. Managers' assessment improved for the business situation, as well as the past and expected evolution of demand.
Manager's assessments of both past and expected employment deteriorated both in the EU and in the euro area, although less in the latter.
These results are derived from the new EU survey in the financial services sector, launched by the European Commission to further increase the sectoral coverage of its survey programme. In line with the schedule of the other business surveys, the survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since April 2006. The objective is to achieve representative results for the EU and the euro area as a whole, rather than for individual Member States.
