In February, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro continued to decline. It fell by 2.2 points in the EU, a much smaller fall than that recorded in January, and by 1.8 points in the euro area, which in contrast was similar to the decline observed in January. The ESIs now stand at 61.0 and 65.4 respectively – the lowest levels since the current series of the indicator was launched in January 1985.

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

EU: February 61.0

Euro area: February 65.4

The fall in the ESI for both the EU and the euro area can be attributed to a general decline in confidence in all sectors, except for the retail trade which slightly improved – by 1 point – in both areas. Industry (-4 points in the EU and -3 in the euro area) was the sector which saw the biggest decline. The construction confidence indicator dropped by 2 points in both the EU and the euro area. Both service and consumer sentiment dropped by 1 point in the EU and by 1 and 2 points respectively in the euro area.

Overall, most Member States recorded a fall in confidence. Among the large Member States, confidence in Poland fell the most (-8.2 points), followed by the Netherlands (-6.7), the UK (-3.8) and Spain (-2.2). The confidence indicator fell less significantly in Germany (-1.2), France (-0.6) and Italy (-0.3).

Employment expectations fell sharply in both industry and services. Consistent with that, consumers’ unemployment expectations increased significantly. After a decreasing trend observed since summer 2008, managers’ selling-price expectations as well as consumers’ price expectations stabilised at very low levels.

The financial services confidence indicator – not included in the ESI – remained broadly unchanged in the EU and improved in the euro area (+4), although not enough to compensate for the significant drop registered in January in both areas. These results reflect a significant decrease in managers’ assessments of both the business situation and the demand for their services over the past three months, whereas their expectation of demand over the next three months improved markedly.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

EU: February -37

Euro area: February -36

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

EU: February -29

Euro area: February -23

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

EU: February -32

Euro area: February -33

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

EU: February -24

Euro area: February -19

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

EU: February -38

Euro area: February -32

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

EU: February -20

Euro area: February -18