With the ending of the anticipated weak phase, the consumer climate made a significant recovery in the first quarter of 2007. The indicator is forecasting 5.5 points for May, which is up on the April forecast of 4.4. Consumers are becoming increasingly aware of the clear signs of a strong economic upswing.

The overall good situation on the job market and further marked increases in wage and salary levels mean that in addition to the generally positive economic outlook, income expectations are also rising sharply. These positive facts are now also likely to encourage the propensity to buy and all the signs are that the positive trend will be sustained in the coming months.

Consumer economic expectations reached record levels in April, when the indicator again rose by just under 8 points to its current level of 61 points. This represents an absolute peak value since monthly consumer climate surveys first began in 1980. A major factor associated with the economic optimism is the generally positive development of the job market. The fall in unemployment levels is even more rapid than originally anticipated in autumn last year.

In the wake of the excellent economic outlook, income expectations have also risen steeply, with the indicator rocketing up by just under 14 points in April. The indicator for income expectations currently stands at 29.6 points, a value surpassed only once previously, in April 2001, which is precisely six years ago.

Buoyed up by the positive economic climate and income expectations, the propensity to buy also rose for the second time in succession. The indicator recovered by almost 6 points in April to settle at its current value of -6.5 points.

This testifies increasingly to the fact that the anticipated weak phase forecast by GfK has remained a phenomenon confined to the first quarter of 2007, and that this was due in the first instance to the special effect triggered by the increase in the rate of VAT.