Cereals market situation
At the start of the 2007/08 marketing year in July, total stocks (private + intervention) were 13.2 million tonnes below levels at the same time the previous year. This is the result of the modest harvest in 2006/07 and significant withdrawals from EU intervention stocks. In 2007, unfavourable weather conditions reduced the harvest and overall EU production is estimated at 256 million tonnes, a fall of10 million tonnes or 3.5 % on the already modest 2006/07 harvest. Output is declining at a time when EU stocks are already low. As a result, the EU will need more imports in 2007/08 than in 2006/07. Traditionally a net exporter, in 2007/08 the EU has become a net importer since 1st July 2007 (5.2 million tonnes by 20th November)
European cereals markets have seen a spectacular upsurge in prices since the start of 2007/08. There are tensions on the small-grain cereals and maize markets, as a result of reduced stocks of common wheat and maize, poorer than forecast quality, and the exhaustion of intervention stocks (currently down to 0.5 million tonnes).
Since the start of the new marketing year, the price of milling wheat in Rouen has risen from €179 per tonne to almost €300 per tonne at the start of September 2007. In Germany bread-making wheat was selling at 70% higher than the previous year by mid-August. Market prices for feed barley have increased in the wake of rising wheat prices. On the French market, feed barley has more than doubled over the summer 2006 rate, listing at up to €270 per tonne in Rouen at the end of September 2007. The high price of barley has triggered a rise in demand for maize for animal feed. French maize prices in Bayonne followed the same trend, rising from €183 per tonne at the start of the new marketing year on 2 July 2007 to a peak of €255 per tonne in mid-September 2007.
Background on import duties
The EU has bound tariffs for all cereals set under the GATT agreement. However, applied rates are different. The system originates in the Blair House Agreement between the US and the EU and involves setting tariffs on the basis of separate world reference prices for clearly defined cereals types. The duty is fixed on the basis of the difference between the effective EU intervention price for cereals including monthly increments, multiplied by 1.55 and a representative cif import price for cereals at Rotterdam.
The resulting duty is currently set at 0 for durum wheat, high quality soft wheat, rye and sorghum. The duty for maize has fluctuated since the beginning of the current marketing year, from a peak of €16.21 per tonne to 0 since 1 October 2007. Outside these quotas, a maximum duty of €93 and €95 per tonne respectively applies.
Tariff rate quotas were introduced in 2003 on barley and low and medium quality wheat in response to large imports from Community of Independent States countries.
For medium and low quality soft wheat, annual Tariff Rate Quota of 2,989,240 tonnes is open, including a country-specific quota of 572,000 tonnes earmarked for imports originating in the United States and 38,853 tonnes for Canada. The remaining 2,378,387 million tonnes is split into four equal tranches of 594,597 tonnes, one of which is open each quarter to other third countries. The duty payable on imports under the quota is set at €12/tonne.
For barley, annual Tariff Rate Quota of 306,215 tonnes is open with €16/tonne duty payable. There is another quota of 50,000 tonnes of malting barley at a duty of €8/tonne.
A duty-free quota of 242,074 tonnes of maize was introduced in 2006 which is split into two equal tranches open to all third countries. This quota has been entirely used for 2007.
For maize and sorghum imported into Spain and Portugal, there are reduced tariff import quotas since Spain and Portugal’s accession to the EU.
For oats, the import tariff is €89/tonne.
