Revenue from 3G-based mobile services will grow rapidly over the next four years in Hungary and will overtake 2.5G service revenue by 2012 as more subscribers migrate to broadband mobile data services, according to a new report from Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network.

The telecom market in Hungary generated $5.2 billion in service revenue in 2008 and will be worth $5.6 billion by 2013, notes Sylwia Boguszewska, analyst at Pyramid Research and co-author of the report. "The competition for 3G and mobile broadband is intensifying among the three mobile operators, T-Mobile, Pannon, and Vodafone," she says. "3G accounts will increase to 62.1 percent of subscriptions by 2013 from its current 9.8 percent penetration. Although 2G still dominates the Hungarian market today, it is expected to disappear by 2013 - with 4G to enter the market in 2010 and take around 2.0 percent of subscriptions by 2013."

The increase in 3G availability will result in higher revenues from mobile data services, Boguszewska says. "Mobile data's share of the total revenue will double, increasing from 11.4 percent in 2008 to 20.9 percent in 2013 due to the growing share of broadband, as well as a significant increase in data ARPS," she explains. "By 2013 non-messaging services, such as ringtones, games, music, and data cards, will reach 50 percent of all mobile data revenue, up from 25 percent in 2008," she adds.

Hungary's operators will face increasing competition in light of consolidation, broadband regulation, and new licensing. "At least two new mobile telephone service providers may appear in the Hungarian market, with five operators acquiring additional frequencies, due to the National Communications Authority of Hungary (NHH) announcement of tenders for a fourth GSM-UMTS license," says Boguszewska. Pyramid anticipates that incumbent operator Magyar Telekom's share of the fixed market will decrease from 62 percent in 2007 to 40 percent in 2013 due to increased competition and the migration to mobile and broadband. "However, given its strategic position as the only integrated operator, Magyar Telekom will remain the dominant player in this market," says Boguszewska.